The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Joy

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
  • Jadon Sancho might become the player he was during his peak.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.

Andrew Harris
Andrew Harris

Award-winning journalist with over 15 years of experience covering UK politics and international affairs.