🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."